andrew
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Post by andrew on May 23, 2005 16:47:47 GMT -5
If we look back 200 years Europe is a very different place, in fact once you look greater than the last 50 years Europe remained almost unchanged. Yes, different countries in Europe ruled the world at different times however they did so very similarly to their other European counterparts.
They were all ruled by Monarchies, all interrelated. When they had wars it was usually in house. Wars were always going on somewhere in Europe constantly. The continent as a whole was never competed against by an outside force. However, if you look at how these wars and constant struggles to be the ruler of the rulers you will find yourself at one conclusion.
In the midst of competing against one another an outsider rose up and took it from them! In fact it was one of their own creations!! So as the evolution of wars took place and lead us toward WWI and WWII this is the beginning of the end for Europe. Totally, ignorant to the error of their ways they now have had to revamp their position in an attempt to consolidate their power.
Europe lives on! To overlook Europe as a contender to rule the world again is ludicrous especially with the way things are shaping up over there. In Europe’s hay day each country could wage war with even the biggest countries in the rest of the world and dominate in a land slide. But with power taken from them a new threat arises. Consider the possibility of a United States of Europe.
Many in the US believe that it is Europe more than any other country that the Americans should be leery of. China and Russia are very insignificant compared to the pooled power of a United Europe. With the EU constitution well underway only time will tell if this is the moment that the Europe we once feared will regain its seat of power.
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Post by Tardy on May 31, 2005 6:07:28 GMT -5
Europe in general is militarily insignificant. Among the nations of Europe there are two major players however. There are only three countries that can deploy and supply well trained well equiped forces anywhere in the world at a moments notice, and two of them (France and the UK) are European. And thats not including their nuclear arsenals. There is never going to be any danger that either France nor Britain would hand over control of these forces to Brussels, indeed none of the big European powers are likely to do that. And with no territorial threat to any European nation, its unlikely that Europe will experience a massive buildup any time soon. What really worries the US is the idea that Europe as an entity will become diplomatically a single body. With a Chinese Superpower wanting to readjust its borders (and don't tell me it won't), and seperatists starting trouble, Russia is going to need some solid allies soon. Accepting the help of a Europe that is cooperating would be far more palletable than US help. Similar situations are likely with India, Turkey, Africa etc etc. A truly independant European foreign policy is extremely undesirable to America for a truckload of reasons, not least because it would throw America's national identitiy into chaos. Luckily it won't happen unless the US goes off the rails completely (and no that hasn't happened yet). And yes, I am rambling.  |
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andrew
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Post by andrew on May 31, 2005 14:16:32 GMT -5
How can you say that Europe is militarily insignificant. That is completely untrue. The Europeans even individual countries have a very large military. Also even after this weekend when France voted down the EU constitution it was only a small set back on the road to a United Europe and a merging of militaries.
After the Constitution becomes ratified Europe will move for an even bigger consolidation of power by combining militaries. England and France do have large military forces now, you also forgot about Germany. If these powers were able to solidify these militaries and bring in the rest of Europe your looking at a tough force to compete with. Each country have a proud history of thier own military and I believe that the best traditions will be kept as they forge together. With a population almost double the United States and with very similar military tactics and technology it is hard to overlook the Europeans as being a contender for world power once again~!
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Post by Tardy on May 31, 2005 21:59:37 GMT -5
I simply meant that the Europe as a whole is quiet militarily insignificant in the global scheme of things. Yes, nations like Germany, Italy, Spain and Poland etc etc do have large militaries and in many cases they are of good quality. But they lack the capacity to deploy war fighting forces anywhere but within Europe. Essentially, any major european action conducted anywhere in the world is going to have to be conducted by France or the UK, the two countries least likely to hand over the control of their forces to Brussels. I don't doubt that Europe will be a major player in the future, it is already, but I have a hard time seeing it as another "western superpower". There is of course the talk of creating a pan european"rapid reaction force", and that worries the Americans. But it's hard to see the individual European nations all agreeing at the same time on it being used to assert European interests overseas.
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andrew
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Post by andrew on Jun 1, 2005 8:34:49 GMT -5
With a collision of European politics there is bound to be a collision of Europe's military. I am not saying that this will happen overnight but I’m willing to bet one hundred, American, dollars that Europe will be a close second to the United States Militarily within 50 years. Then depending on the positions of these super powers the titleholder will defeat the other in a massive war. Afterward there will be a movement to unite the world under one government. This will be different from previous attempts because now we know the entire known world. I am only betting that Europe will be almost as powerful as the US within 50 years.
With a merge of old and weathered European Military traditions we will see the super power of old reclaim its hold on the world.
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Post by Tardy on Jun 1, 2005 8:52:46 GMT -5
I studied this at uni, so (at least on this topic) I know what I'm talking about. It makes sense that the Europeans should combine forces permanantly and start throwing its weight about. After all they now have cheap labour (from the former warsaw pact countries), and have something like a combined economy of 3/4 the US strength, which is massive. And even at their peadetimes strength, the European militaries have a combined budget of 1/3 the US, which again is huge. The problem is that just because it makes sense does not mean it'll happen. You say that with political unity there will be military unity. Well the former is even further away from the latter. Treaties and agreements will not make a strong union, the Individual countries and their people need to feel that such changes are nessesary. A major international crisis might achieve this, but until then they will jealously guard their sovereignty. I'd love a United European power that was willing to back its retoric with action, but I don't see it happening soon, 50 years might do it though....
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andrew
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Post by andrew on Jun 1, 2005 10:05:19 GMT -5
Political merging is not something the Europeans are far away from. Looking at the last 50 years Europe has accomplished something that it hasn't previously before in its history. Peace! When the European Economic Community started in 1958 these countries forged a combined economic entity. Afterward the countries enjoyed heavy economic increases by banning Europeans tariffs and confronting international competition as one body. These feats are by no means small, and as successful as it has been its hard to answer why these countries haven't combined even more.
We are currently at a juncture where these countries are trying to speed up the process. And in my mind combining economically is even harder than Politically! Even with the French vote against it many believe we will see sharp attention going to getting the vote passed in France. With the economic block of Europe becoming one entity it would be impossible to ignore that they we need to solidify militarily and politically.
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Post by Tardy on Jun 1, 2005 19:56:43 GMT -5
Yes, to you and I it seems like its the logical next step, but until major parties are able to say "vote for me and i'll hand over the keys to the treasury, the parliment and the armed forces to Brussels" and win it's not going to happen. Ironically the 50 years of peace have made economic union easy while making a real political/defensive union seem unessesary. Look at it this way: strategically, it would seem like a good idea if countries like Australia and Canada joined with america in a solid political, economic and defensive union with the US. But unless something really drastic happens (in Australias case for example, a reemerging Indonesia annexes Papua New Guinie and Malaysia and starts making moves on Uranium rich Northern Australia) its not going to happen.
And as a afterthought, in 50 years time most european countries (according to the UN) will be suffering major demographic problems, with its population shrinking and people over 40 making up the majority. While the US population will have almost doubled.
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andrew
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Post by andrew on Jun 6, 2005 9:13:35 GMT -5
Well I do believe, like you are saying, that in a few of the larger European countries it would be difficult to run politically with a EU campaign. However, these big countries see the need that although they may out compete a rival within Europe successfully they will not be able to compete with other countries throughout the world successfully. This was the founding principal of the EEC.
As you can see and have heard over the last few years, the Europeans are combining politically. This is a long time due if you ask me, but we're seeing a divide in Europe between those who think they can manage individually and those who think Europe needs to Unify or perish. Right now the Europeans have almost double the US population and if the demographics that you pointed out are correct then the need to merge is even greater.
At this point until a nation or group of nations threaten the US domination of the world I see no reason for the US to enter into a united continent. Perhaps if the EU regains their power of old the US may need to offset that power with a continental block.
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Post by molihe on Feb 27, 2008 1:27:45 GMT -5
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Post by AASASDF on Feb 27, 2008 2:18:49 GMT -5
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Post by SDAFADFAD on Feb 27, 2008 2:19:14 GMT -5
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Post by SDFASDASDFA on Feb 27, 2008 2:19:37 GMT -5
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